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Monday, September 19, 2011

Delaware County Fair - Tuesday Analysis

Although the Delaware meet began on Sunday, the signal was not available for simulcasting so we begin our coverage of the Delaware County Fair with Tuesday's card of seventeen races.  One thing I have learned from watching Delaware is those who are from Ohio have a  good sense of who is going to win so it is harder to go against the odds.  This is not to say you can't get a good price on a horse, but it is harder here than an extended pari-mutuel meet where the horses are better known to gamblers.

Not one to endorse any product, but if there is any meet where you need additional help, this is a meet where Trackmaster programs are essential as they allow you to figure out the caliber of horses that race on the fair circuit; the lack of class ratings in traditional programs leave gamblers here blind.  However, if you want to try, the USTA Little Brown Jug mini site does have programs available for free.  Just click on the appropriate day to get the program.

While you will see less of this as the week goes on, you must remember this is a country fair race meet.  As a result, you will find horses making their first starts without a qualifying line and you will see horses that have not raced at an extended parimutuel meet before, so watching the board at the beginning of wagering is essential to see if those first time starters are "live".

Here is my analysis.  Underneath my selections where there is no extended analysis, I will list first time starters (horses that neither raced or qualified).  Also being a fair, they allow provisional drivers to race; I will designate provisional drivers with an asterisk (*).

1st Trot - $2,200; 2yo Colts and Geldings - NW2 Races of $5,000 LT
5 - Hoorayforvacation (D Noble, 5-2)
1 - N A Jessee (P Karcher*, 7-2)
2 - Red Stripe (R Paver, 6-1).
First Time Starters: #3 Pauc; #6 Florida Flophouse

2nd Pace- $1,700; Horses and Geldings - NW $1,000L5; Winners of $10,000 in 2011 Ineligible
2 - Beans And Weenies (R Stahl, 2-1)
5 - Saint Henry (R Paver, 4-1)
4 - Little Gary Perry (D Noble, 6-1)

3rd Trot - $1,750; Horses and Geldings - NW $2,000L5; Winners of $15,000 in 2011 Ineligible
1 - Stock Boy Freddie (D Swaney*, 3-1)
3 - One Sharp Spur (E Greeno Jr, 8-1)
4 - Kaptain Kosmo (R Burns, 10-1)
5 - CR Muscle Power (L Farleyy*, 5-2)

4th Pace - $2,400; 2yo Colts and Geldings - NW2 or $10,000LT 
6 - Jo Jo In The Sky (C Page, 10-1)
1 - Narragansett (R Stahal, 3-1)
2 - Dolly's Rembrandt (D Noble, 6-1)

5th Trot - $20,822; Ohio Breeders Championship - 2yo Colts and Geldings (1st Division)
5 - Count Me In (C Noble, 2-1) - Winner of two straights seems to be at peak right now.
6 - Rose Run Nash (R Stahl, 7-2) - Toss last.  Better than showing.
4 - Carolina Girl )D Myers, 4-1) -  Good when flat.  That is the million dollar question.
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2 - Jalibird Jesse (D Noble, 3-1) - Son of popular sire Jailhouse Jesse may find himself in the money.
3 - Blazing Future (D Prister, 8-1) - Won last ,but taking a class hike; lucky to pick up any check.
1 - Master's Fly Trap (J Daley, 6-1) - Racing well on fair circuit but taking a huge class hike.

6th Pace - $1,700; Horses and Geldings - NW $1,000L5; Winners of $10,000 Ineligible
1 - Odds On Emanuel (C Page, 4-1)
5 - Lavish Life (D Noble, 6-1)
4 - Kinnick (K Sugg,10-1)

7th Trot - $1,750; Horses and Geldings - NW $2,000L5; Winners of $15,000 in 2011 Ineligible
6 - Parson Brown (D Noble, 3-1)
2 - Victor Victory (J Nsonger, 5-2)
8 - Whatsuppwiththat A (Holoto, 8-1)
3 - Silent Star (K Sugg, 6-1) 
'
8th Trot - $20,822; Ohio Breeders Championship - 2yo Colts and Geldings (2nd Division)
4 - Al Brown (A Manke III, 4-1) - Winner of three straight seems to be on track for win #4.
5 - Jesse's Touch (T Moore Jr, 3-1) - Triple race winner is racing tough on the fair circuit; handles hike.
6 - Rose Run Noland (D Harvey, 8-1) - Finished second to top choice; may complete Trifecta.
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2 - Rock N Jessie (R Paver, 2-1) - Has class edge but seems to be off form of late.
7 - Captain Jesse (D Myers, 12-1) - Racing well on the fair circuit but draws the worst of it.
1 - Countmymuscles (D Mc Kirgan, 6-1) - Off form of late.
3 - Its Jesse Time (K Kauffman, 10-1) - Broke last four starts.  Can't recommend.

9th Pace - $8,500; Delaware Open Series - 3yo Fillies
6 - Simpy Jorgeous (R Paver, 3-1)
2 - Doris Leader (D Noble, 5-2)
3 - Cinder Angelina (R Stahl, 10-1)

10th Pace - $1,700; Fillies and Mares- NW $1,000L5; Winners of $10,000 in 2011 Ineligible (Gtd $5,000 Pick 4 - 15% takeout)

7 - Precious River Del (R Paver, 6-1)
5 - Decided Advantage (H Beatty, 3-1)
4 - Artistic Dynasty (T McRoberts*, 8-1)
6 - Katies Deamboat (D Noble, 12-1)

11th Trot - $2,200; Fillies and Mares - Non-winners $2,000L5; Winners Over $15,000 Ineligible.5 - Should Be Aboy (R Paver, 3-1)
4 - Littlebitofhoney (C Page, 6-1)
1 - She's A Jailbird (M Myers*, 8-1)
8 - Mom's A Hustler (R Burns, 10-1)
#9 Lotta Power socres from second tier
 
12th Trot - $17,772; Ohio Breeders Championship - 2yo Fillies (1st Division)
1 - Jessica Rayne (D Noble, 9-5) - 5 for 8 lifetime; appears to have big class edge.
3 - Lofty Jssica (J Konesky III, 4-1) -  Been racing well on the fair circuit; second best.
5 - Rose Run Natassia (K Kauffman, 3-1) - Breaking an issue, but when flat she wins.
7 -U R Toast (E Greeno Jr, 10-1) - Last effort was big but draws outside.
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2 - I Can Count (A Manke III, 6-1) -Jumping of late.  If flat, may be able to get into exotics.
4 - Bosco's Angel (D Harvey, 8-1) -  Seems to be tailing off.
6 - Sinapede (J Nsonger, 12-1) - Dull qualifier and draws poorly for her.
 
13th Pace - $1,700; Fillies and Mares - Non-winners of $1,000L5; Winners over $10,000 Ineligible
2 - Quick Pulse (K Kaufman, 5-2)
7 - Mattress Dancing (P Ungshack, 8-1)
8 - Blue Meadow Tara (C Page, 10-1)
5 - Badlands Kate (JD Wengred, 4-1)
 
14th Trot - $4,000; Signature Series Final
6 - This Sands Hot (J Koinesky III, 3-1)
4 - Bristol (S De Mull, 4-1)
3 - Trple G (H Dick, 6-1)
5 - Rewrite The Rules (L Farley, 5-2)
 
15th Trot - $17,722; Ohio Breeders Championship - 2yo Fillies (2nd Division)
8 - Yankee's Victory (J Nsonger, 10-1) - May be stepping up, but she's on a tear.  Worth a try at these odds.
4 - Lady At Bat (D Noble, 4-1) - Wins or breaks.  Which will it be today? 
7 - Tesla (K Kauffman, 12-1) - 4 for 7 and shows a good line from post seven.
2 - TT's Taterchip (C Noble, 3-1) - Admittedly can win this but taking a stab against her.
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3 - Jumpin Jesse (S Morgan, 12-1) - Still a maiden.  Can get into exotics.
1 - Rose Run Nellie (S Cox, 6-1) - Outpaced om a 2:09.3 mile.  Can't recommend.
5 - Jessica Action (R Stahl, 7-2) - Was on the way to victory when she broke.  Shows record of breaking.
6 - Cinca De Miya (D Myers, 8-1) - Program full of breaks.  Why should this week be different?
 
16th Pace - $1,700; Fillies and Mares - Non-winners $1,000L5; Winners over $10,000 Ineligible
5 - Broadway Petera (D Noble, 4-1)
7 - Naughty Maude (J Nsonger, 15-1)
1 - Standing Pretty (J D Wengerd, 5-2)
3 - Scootonovernkissme (K Kaufman, 10-1)
 
17th Pace- $2,000; 2YO Colts and Geldings - NW 1 Race or $2,500LT
3 - Duke Towne (J Nsonger, 7-2)
7 - Winchester's Punch (C Page, 2-1)
6 - Big Red (C Noble, 8-1)
1 - Rocken Camnation (R Stahl, 6-1)

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